One Sunday morning at 4:00 a.m., a Chester, CT man was going to work just like he had many times before. He did not pay attention to or did not notice that there was a vehicle parked at the end of his driveway with two men hiding in the shadows. As he approached his pickup parked in his driveway, he glanced up and saw a figure sprinting toward him. Literally within seconds (2.66 seconds to be exact), a robber was on him and pointing a pistol at his face as he forced him to the ground demanding money. The victim repeatedly said that he did not have any money as the man’s armed accomplice began rummaging through his pickup. The news later reported that the robbers fired shots at the victim as they fled; however, this was not on the video and the victim was not injured during the incident.
This is going to be a series where I explore just how fast a criminal attack can happen through analyzing actual video recorded events. Why is that important? One of the critical challenges a private citizen faces when confronted with a criminal attack is recognizing what is happening and then reacting fast enough to respond effectively. This is not trivial since the attack is often underway before a defender even realizes that there is a problem. Further, many people sincerely believe that their neighborhood is safe, that they go to safe areas, and that deadly violence will not happen to them. Thus, there is a moment (sometimes a long moment) of disbelief and hesitancy when they are faced with an imminent deadly threat. This disbelief and accompanying hesitancy often renders their response overcome by events even if they have planned a response.
If you are not familiar with COL Boyd’s Observe, Orient, Decide, Act cycle, it is worth reviewing.* For the purposes of this discussion, suffice it to say that the OODA framework is a process of decision making in response to changes in your environment. In COL Boyd’s case, he used it to teach fighter pilots how to make good decisions in during aerial combat. We can apply the OODA framework to determine whether the victim in this incident had time to effectively respond to the abrupt change in his environment.
Look at the time again – 2.66 seconds from the start until the victim has a pistol in his face. The victim observed the approaching robber 0.44 seconds after the robber had begun his sprint. At 0.87 seconds into his sprint, the robber chambered a round in his semi-automatic pistol and was at that point capable of firing at the victim who was continuing to stare at the on-coming robber. However, upon (presumably) reacting to the round being chambered at 0.94 seconds, the victim is now aware of a deadly threat and starts to react by turning away from the robber. The victim now has 1.72 seconds to respond before the robber who is approximately twenty feet away is on him.
A reasonably well-trained person can draw and fire a concealed handgun in 1.72 seconds; however, that does not fully describe the victim’s problem. If we look at this incident using Boyd’s OODA cycle from the victim’s and the robber’s perspective, the robber has already passed through a full cycle. He Observed the victim exiting his house, Oriented when he saw the victim moving toward his pick-up, Decided to rob him, and began Acting (sprinting toward the victim) all while the victim was still in the Observe stage.
As we see in this incident, the defender is typically behind in the decision cycle because the violent criminal actor is usually in the Act stage while the defender is still observing. The quicker the defender (in this case the victim) perceives what is happening (observe), the quicker the defender can act (i.e. execute a response)—this of course presumes the victim has planned for an effective response.
How do we effectively respond to incidents such as this? The key is to have a set of pre-planned actions to execute in response to a given stimulus. This allows you to skip the Orient and Decide steps and go immediately to the Act step. If an unknown contact is approaching and attempting to engage you, there are several immediate actions you can take depending upon the totality of the circumstances. For example, if I am pulling into my driveway and a car stops at the driveway entrance with young men exiting, I have several options. If I am still in the car, I can simply drive away—across the lawn if necessary (see picture below). If I have exited the car, I can take cover and covertly draw my pistol and challenge them. Visualizing “what if” scenarios based upon your environment and daily activities and deciding what your action would be in each scenario will significantly speed up your reaction if you are suddenly facing unlawful deadly force.
The solution to this challenge is to develop mental models of if “X” observation, then “Y” response. Mental awareness and mindset are critical components to surviving any defensive encounter involving deadly force. However, mindset alone is insufficient. It must be coupled with proper training and a willingness to act. This allows one to skip the intervening steps in the OODA cycle and increases the chance of responding effectively. The victim in this incident was not hit when the robber(s) shot at him—but he certainly could have been.
I addressed how to respond effectively; however, how do we prevent incidents such as this? One technique taught in anti-terrorism classes is examining your environment for potential threats from a safe area. I always look at my driveway area before I exit my house. The victim in this incident had a camera that clearly showed a vehicle parked in the street near the end of his driveway and it is very possible that had the victim checked his camera, he would have seen the robbers prior to exiting his house and could have made the appropriate decision without a pistol in his face. The fight we avoid is a fight we win.
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* For an in-depth discussion of Boyd’s OODA framework: https://www.artofmanliness.com/character/behavior/ooda-loop/
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